In a fast-paced and dynamic presentation at the TFC Annual Meeting on December 1 at the Gaylord Opryland Resort in Nashville, keynote speaker Mike Pearson led meeting attendees through the complicated and interwoven issues that will impact the agriculture industry in 2026.

In his presentation entitled “What’s Driving Agriculture Now,” Pearson leaned on his background and deep understanding of the industry to provide insight on data and trends that farmers and those working in ag must consider as they make decisions about their operations.

Pearson was born and raised in South Central Iowa, where his passion for agriculture began on his family’s hog and cattle farm. After earning his degree from Simpson College, he moved to Grinnell, Iowa, where he not only built his own cow herd, but also worked as an agricultural lender, gaining firsthand experience in both the production and business sides of farming. He left farming in 2015 due to personal reasons, but in turn, gained a broader perspective on agriculture.

Over the past decade, Pearson has brought his experience and expertise to the world of media. He has hosted “Market to Market” on public television, the Ag News Daily podcast, and currently serves as the host of “This Week in Agribusiness” on RFD-TV. Each year, he interviews over a thousand professionals in the ag industry, giving him a unique perspective on the markets, technology, and trends in U.S. and global agriculture that are shaping agriculture today.

As he began his presentation, Pearson asked attendees to consider agriculture from a “30,000-foot view.”

“Over the last 10 years, our industry has gone through more changes than it has since the early 1970s,” he said.

Those changes, he said, have created both challenges and opportunities, but “it’s no secret to anyone in this room that agriculture is struggling.” He pointed out that: After the “best year in the history of U.S. agriculture” in 2022, crop revenues have declined sharply:

• Corn is down from $75.8 billion in 2023 to $60.7 billion in 2025.

• Soybeans have lost about $20 billion in revenue.

• Wheat has seen a slight decline of $2 billion.

• Cotton has enjoyed slight improvement due to lower yields due to drought in 2022.

Input costs, however, continue to rise, creating severe margin compression, Pearson said, noting that no major crop segment has seen great success. Historically, agriculture has faced cycles of boom and bust, and the current downturn is part of that pattern.

Pearson pointed out that the only bright spot in 2025 has been cattle, which enjoyed strong demand and record prices due to historically low herd numbers and robust consumer spending. However, even this sector faces political and policy risks.

As he shared insights from these conversations to help us better understand what lies ahead in markets, policy, and global trade, Pearson cited issues to watch for in the coming year: inertia, trade disruptions, cattle industry whipsaw, inflations and interest rates, and policy.

Inertia “Current fundamentals will be the biggest factor,” said Pearson. “Agriculture, both in America and globally, is a huge industry. Growers are already planning for 2026, and some are even planning for 2027. It takes time for the industry to pivot.”

When the market produces economic signals, he explained, farmers can’t act on day one.

“We've got to build them into our production plans before we can start to roll 'em out, which means that inertia, the current fundamentals, the current trends of our markets, will continue to be the biggest driver of your take home pay going forward,” he said. Trade disruptions The most significant shift in American agriculture occurred in 1973 during what is commonly referred to as “the Great Russian Grain Robbery,” an event that Pearson said changed the U.S. agriculture model. Facing a severe famine and a failed wheat crop, the Soviet Union secretly negotiated trade agreements with major U.S. grain exporters, securing massive quantities of grain and shocking global markets.

This event drove commodity prices sharply higher throughout the 1970s and transformed U.S. agriculture into an export-oriented industry — a model that thrived for five decades under relative global stability. Aside from the Cold War, international trade remained largely uninterrupted during this period.

Today’s trade disruptions often dominate headlines, with tariffs frequently blamed on presidential policies.

“While tariffs have undeniably altered global trade flows, these challenges are part of broader cyclical shifts,” Pearson explained. “Events such as Brexit and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine occurred independently of U.S. leadership.

“I think these breakdowns in the global trading order would be happening regardless of who was in the White House,” said Pearson, while acknowledging that “tariffs are undoubtedly changing global trade flows.”

The 2018 trade war marked a turning point, and its effects continue to reverberate, he stated. By 2024 and 2025, American agriculture was still adjusting to structural changes triggered in 2018. The current struggle is not about recent tariff rates but about competing in a global market where other producers have been incentivized to grow the same commodities.

Livestock and cattle market The cattle sector has experienced unprecedented price appreciation since 2020, driven by tight supplies and strong consumer demand, but political interference poses risks, Pearson said. In October 2025, President Trump announced plans to lower beef prices, triggering a sharp market correction. Policy actions, such as expanded Argentine beef imports, have hurt U.S. producers despite fundamentals favoring high prices. Pearson emphasized that consumer demand remains robust, and cattle prices should stabilize at historically high levels, but political uncertainty will continue to weigh on investment. Inflation and interest rates Pearson noted that the U.S. money supply has surged, and inflationary pressures are expected to return. Indicators include record highs in gold, equities, and real estate. The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, has resisted aggressive rate cuts to avoid repeating the asset inflation of the 1970s. However, political pressure for near-zero rates could prevail, redirecting capital flows into commodities. This scenario mirrors the 1970s, when low interest rates, inflation, and energy shocks fueled a commodity boom before the farm crisis of the 1980s, explained Pearson.

“As we get into 2026, we have a ton of money out here in the US economy,” he said. “Interest rates are going to come down to those two factors plus tariffs, which raise prices. That's what they do. If a tariff isn't raising crisis to the end user, it's not working as a tool of government policy. So, tariffs are inflationary. We're going to see all these factors come together, I believe, in 2026, and that's going to start to push commodities. Policy “What are we seeing from the federal government with regard to policy to support our industry?” he asked, noting that some argue that we are not going to be as much of an export powerhouse as we have been for years.

“If so, then we have to find more ways to soak up these modules domestically,” said Pearson, citing biofuels as a promising alternative. “I'm a proponent of biofuels as an Iowan. We were on the front edge of the ethanol boom. I've seen the value that biofuels can bring back to rural America. To me, that seems like the home-run alternative to use for all of these commodities that we're exporting.”

The Trump administration seems to be on the same page, he said “We've seen some very favorable support for biofuels here over the past few months, though there's still a way to go,” said Pearson “I think that's a conversation that will be ongoing in Washington, D.C., for a while.”

As producers prepare for 2026 and beyond, Pearson offers the following advice: • Producers should either scale up to achieve global competitiveness or specialize in niche and direct-to-consumer markets, which are expected to represent a growing share of food purchases by 2030. • Diversification is increasingly important, with opportunities in value-added activities such as on-farm processing, specialty feed production, or integrating renewable energy. • Farmers must closely monitor global trends, as South American weather, policy, and production will play a larger role in shaping U.S. prices. • Given ongoing risks from inflation, interest rates, and trade disruptions, effective risk management and flexible planning will be critical to navigating heightened market volatility.

The message from Pearson is that agriculture is entering a period of profound transition. Export dominance is waning, global competition is intensifying, and policy uncertainty looms large. Yet opportunities exist in biofuels, domestic value-added processing, and specialty markets. Pearson closed by urging producers to adapt, innovate, and stay informed.

“The changes reshaping agriculture are not coming — they have already arrived,” he said. “Success will depend on how quickly and strategically farmers respond.”