Corn up, beans down
USDA Prospective Planting report reflects uneasiness in American agronomy
By Mark Johnson
The agricultural landscape of the United States continues to undergo significant transformation, as evidenced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) 2025 Prospective Plantings report released March 31. This annual survey, which reflects farmers' planting intentions based on early-season surveys, offers a glimpse into the shifting priorities and challenges within the farming community, many of which are being attributed to new trade tensions and the continued high costs of ag inputs.
Nationally in 2025, U.S. farmers plan to plant 95.3 million acres of corn, marking a 5% increase from the previous year and reaching a 12-year high. Soybean acreage is projected at 83.5 million acres, down 4% from 2024. Wheat planting intentions have also declined, with an estimated 45.4 million acres, representing the second-lowest wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Cotton acreage is expected to decrease by 12%, totaling 9.87 million acres.
In Tennessee, farmers intend to plant 1.1 million acres of corn, a substantial 29% increase from 2024. Soybean acreage is expected to decrease by 5%, totaling 1.6 million acres. Wheat planting is projected at 400,000 acres, down 2%, while cotton acreage is anticipated to decline by 12% to 280,000 acres.
Interviewed during the last week of March, Jamie Perry, operational manager of Mid-South Farmers Cooperative, said that the planting season had started early.
“We started seeing burndown about three weeks ago and some farmers have already been planting some beans,” said Perry. “Mother Nature has been good to us so far. We’re expecting an uptick in corn and cotton to remain fairly flat. Nothing is a home run, but corn seems as favorable as anything at this point.”
In Overton County, Ag1 Farmers Cooperative Agronomy Manager Jay Simmons provided a similar report.
“Things kicked off pretty heavy [the last week of March],” Simmons noted. “The water table moisture is up compared to last year, and early beans and corn are being planted. I do think it will be a tight year, though. The dry weather last year really hurt everybody’s money in the bank, especially with the row crop guys. On the positive side, we have good cattle prices, so our beef producers tend to be loosening up a bit and are applying pasture and hay-ground fertilizer that they might not have over the past couple of years.”
According to the USDA report, neighboring states are exhibiting similar trends. Arkansas farmers plan a 42% increase in corn acreage, while soybean and wheat acres are expected to decrease by 3% and 4%, respectively. Mississippi anticipates a 41% rise in corn planting, with soybean and wheat acres decreasing by 6% and 5%, respectively.
The March 31 report indicates that Tennessee row crop farmers intend to plant nearly 30% more corn over 2024, while soybeans, wheat, and cotton acres are expected to decline.
These planting decisions are occurring against a backdrop of complex trade dynamics. The highly publicized tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on key trading partners — including China, Mexico, and Canada — have led to retaliatory measures impacting U.S. agricultural exports. For example, soybean exports are facing significant challenges due to decreased demand from China, historically one of the largest importers of U.S. soybeans.
According to a recent Reuters report, the increased corn acreage may be a strategic response to these trade tensions. Corn, being a versatile crop with domestic applications such as ethanol production and livestock feed, offers a relatively stable market compared to export-dependent crops like soybeans. However, this shift is not without risks. An oversupply of corn could lead to depressed prices, especially if export opportunities are curtailed by ongoing trade disputes.
Carroll Farmers Cooperative General Manager David Drewry said the “jury’s still out” on how the tariffs will impact farmers in his area.
“Honestly, I don’t see it as a positive impact in the short term,” Drewry said. “It’s hard to say what the long-term implications will be. In my part of the state, I wouldn’t say that people are exactly excited about the upcoming growing season, but on the positive side, we’ve had an early spring and planting is already underway. I’m not sure that planting decisions have been affected by the tariffs one way or the other — we’ll just have to see how it plays out.”
Simmons agreed, adding that he sees most of the tariff conversation as politically motivated.
“I think it’s too early to tell what all of this will mean,” he said. “We’ve seen some scares in the market, but these seem to bounce back a few days later. Talk is cheap, and I look at a lot of this as simple scare tactics. From my perspective, it’s not impacting the planting decisions of people in my part of the state.”
In response to the economic challenges faced by farmers, the USDA has expressed a readiness to provide financial assistance to those adversely affected by trade disputes. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that the department is prepared to "make farmers whole" if they suffer losses due to retaliatory tariffs. While details of such aid packages remain forthcoming, this assurance aims to mitigate some of the uncertainty looming over the farming community.
As always, the agronomy professionals at your local Co-op are available to help with your planting and inputs decisions for the upcoming growing season.
By Mark Johnson,
Contact mark@bigharvestcreative.com