Hopeful shifts
USDA report shows continued uptick in soybean acres, less in corn
By Mark Johnson
On the last of March, Cooperator photographer Lindsey Parsley caught United Co-op Director Drew Bailey adding corn to a planter at his farm near Alamo. Bailey was taking advantage of near-perfect weather conditions that have given producers throughout Tennessee a headstart on the busy spring planting season.
U.S. farmers are expected to make more measured acreage adjustments in 2026, with corn holding stronger than expected and soybeans gaining modestly, according to the Prospective Plantings report released March 31, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). While the report did not deliver any major surprises nationally, it does signal meaningful implications for Tennessee producers as they finalize planting decisions and start getting seed in the ground.
Early-season momentum is providing some much-needed optimism. In late March, Jamie Perry, with United Farmers Cooperative, reported an unusually strong start to the season across West Tennessee.
“We have made more progress in the last two months than at any time I can remember in my career,” said Perry. “Sales of fertilizer, seed, and crop protection products are moving at a brisk rate. Wheat and canola are maturing fast, and while it has been dry, we’re hoping the forecast will stay favorable to keep this pace going.”
Alamo’s Drew Bailey, a United board member who crops around 8,000 Madison and Crockett County acres with his father, Steve, agreed and noted that “spring is moving fast.”
“It’s April weather — nearly 90 degrees — but we’re sitting here on the last day of March,” Bailey said during a planting pause. “I’m optimistic and nervous at the same time; not looking at the calendar but focusing on the weather. We’re praying to the Good Lord that it all works out.”
Bailey’s cautious optimism seemed evident across the U.S. when the NASS’s national projections were released. The report states that corn acreage is projected at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from 2025 levels. Soybeans are forecast at 84.7 million acres, representing a 4% year-over-year increase. All wheat acreage is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3%, while cotton is projected at 9.64 million acres, up 4% from last year.
For Tennessee growers, the most important takeaway is the continued shift toward soybeans. Lower input costs — particularly compared to corn and cotton — have made soybeans an attractive option in a year where margins remain tight and input price volatility is still top of mind. Seed, fertilizer, and fuel costs have stabilized compared to the peaks of recent seasons, but many producers are still prioritizing risk management and flexibility. Soybeans offer both, especially in double-crop systems following wheat.
Drew Bailey farms alongside his father, Steve, growing 8,000 acres of cotton, corn, soybeans, and wheat across Crockett and Madison Counties. Drew is the fourth generation of his family to serve on Co-op boards, and his children are the fifth-generation of the family on the land.
Equipment like planters, spreaders, and sprayers are rolling early in the season, giving producers a good chance at a successful year, say Co-op officials. Farmers seem to be cautiously optimistic for the coming year, knowing that adequate moisture and sunshine in the coming weeks are still critical and many variables are still in play.
Corn remains a cornerstone crop across much of Tennessee, supported by steady demand from feed, ethanol, and export channels. However, the soybean-to-corn price ratio leading into planting season did not strongly favor aggressive corn expansion. As a result, many growers appear to be maintaining rotations rather than pushing additional corn acres, particularly in areas where input costs or yield variability present greater risk.
Cotton acreage presents a different story in the 2026 report. The USDA estimate of 9.64 million acres represents an increase from last year, suggesting some stabilization in cotton plantings nationally. While price pressure and input costs remain a concern, this increase indicates that not all regions are pulling back equally. In Tennessee, producers may still weigh cotton carefully against soybeans and corn, particularly where risk management and rotation needs come into play.
This acreage shift has downstream implications for ag retailers and input suppliers across the state. Increased soybean acreage may temper demand for certain fertilizer products, particularly nitrogen, while sustaining or increasing demand for herbicide programs tailored to resistant weed pressures. Retailers may also see adjustments in seed demand, with soybean varieties gaining share relative to both corn hybrids and cotton varieties.
Wheat acreage, while not a major driver in this report, continues to play a strategic role in Tennessee cropping systems, particularly when paired with double-crop soybeans. The slight national decline in wheat acres suggests stability rather than expansion, but favorable fall conditions and strong management could still support solid double-crop opportunities in the state.
Ultimately, the 2026 Prospective Plantings report points to a year of disciplined decision-making by U.S. farmers. Rather than making dramatic acreage shifts, producers are fine-tuning rotations based on margins, input costs, and risk tolerance. For Tennessee growers, that translates into a lean toward soybeans, a steady but cautious approach to corn, and a pullback in cotton.
As the season progresses, the weather will remain the final determining factor. Soil moisture conditions, planting windows, and early-season temperatures will influence how closely actual planted acreage aligns with these projections.
To download a copy of the NASS report, visit https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/prospective-plantings.
